Three years after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the resulting Western sanctions, the country remains an oil and gas powerhouse. Despite falling from the world’s second-largest to third-largest global oil producer and seeing its export rankings decline, Russia continues to delay the global energy transition as a major fossil fuel supplier and geopolitical force.

Western observers often struggle to understand Russia’s future role in energy geopolitics and the intentions of President Vladimir Putin. To shed light on these questions, we welcome back Thane Gustafson, Professor of Government at Georgetown University and a leading authority on Russian political economy. He is the author of many books, notably Klimat: Russia in the Age of Climate Change, which we covered at length in Episodes #162 and #163.

In this nearly two-hour conversation, we explore his newest book, Perfect Storm—Russia’s Failed Economic Opening, the Hurricane of War and Sanctions, and the Uncertain Future. Gustafson carefully explains how Russia’s post-Soviet reopening to the West failed, how the Crimea occupation precipitated that failure, and where Western sanctions have succeeded or failed in containing Putin’s ambitions. We examine Russia’s oil and gas resources, infrastructure, business capacity, and the evolving relationships between Russian oligarchs and Western governments. The discussion reveals how Russia has evaded energy export sanctions, unpacks Putin’s motivations, and assesses Russia’s fading fortunes as global energy transition efforts accelerate.